Seven steps to better forecasting

Seven steps to better forecasting

Business leaders make judgement calls every day. Philip Tetlock says there are ways to improve the chances of getting them right. Below are the seven steps to better forecasting.

  1. Break seemingly intractable problems into tractable sub-problems.Superforecasters split problems into knowable and unknowable parts. They flush ignorance into the open. “Expose and examine your assumptions,” says Tetlock. “Dare to be wrong by making your best guess. Better to discover errors quickly than to hide them behind vague verbiage.”
  2. Strike the right balance between inside and outside views.Superforecasters know there is nothing new under the sun. “Uniqueness is a matter of degree,” says Tetlock. Superforecasters conduct creative searches for comparisons even for seemingly unique events, such as the stand-off between a new socialist government in Athens and Greece’s creditors. “Superforecasters are in the habit of posing the outside view question – ‘How often do things of this sort happen in situations of this sort?’.”
  3. Strive to distinguish as many degrees of doubt as the problem permits – but no more.While few things are either certain or impossible, “maybe” is not an informative response. Tetlock says nuance matters. “The more degrees of uncertainty you can distinguish, the better a forecaster you are likely to be,” he explains. “Translating vague-verbiage hunches into numeric probabilities feels unnatural at first, but it can be done. It just requires patience and practice. The superforecasters have shown what is possible.”
  4. Strike the right balance between underreacting and overreacting to evidence.Tetlock says updating your beliefs is as important to good forecasting as brushing and flossing is to good dental hygiene. It can be boring, occasionally uncomfortable, but it pays off in the long term. “Skilful updating requires teasing subtle signals from noisy news flows, all the while resisting the lure of wishful thinking.” Tetlock adds that superforecasters tend to update their beliefs in small increments, often moving from probabilities of, say, 0.4 to 0.35. These distinctions are too subtle to capture with vague verbiage such as “might” or “maybe”, but in the long run, Tetlock says these distinctions define the difference between good and great forecasters.
  5. Look for the errors behind your mistakes but beware of rear-view mirror hindsight biases.Rather than trying to excuse your failures, you should own them and conduct unflinching post-mortems on where you went wrong. “Remember that although the more common error is to learn too little from failure and to overlook flaws in your basic assumptions, it is also possible to learn too much,” says Tetlock. “You may have been basically on the right track but made a minor technical mistake that had big ramifications.” He suggests examining your successes, too. “Not ail successes imply that your reasoning was right,” he says. “You may have lucked out by making offsetting errors. If you keep reasoning along the same lines, you are setting yourself up for a nasty surprise.”
  6. Bring out the best in others and let others bring out the best in you.Master the fine art of team management. This includes understanding the arguments of the other side, precision questioning so you can help others clarify their arguments, and learning to disagree without being disagreeable. “Wise leaders know how fine the line can be between helpful suggestions and micro-managerial meddling… or between a scatterbrained group and an open-minded one,” says Tetlock.
  7. Focus on questions where your hard work is likely to pay off.Certain classes of outcomes, such as oil prices and currency markets, are hard to predict. Tetlock says we usually don’t know how unpredictable outcomes are until we’ve spun our wheels trying to gain analytical traction. “There are two basic errors it is possible to make here,” he says. “We could fail to try to predict the potentially predictable or we could waste our time trying to predict the unpredictable. Which error would be worse in your situation?”

 

‘Seven steps to better forecasting’ In The Black (March 2016): 47. Print

 

MYOB Incite 2016

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This morning some of our team members went to the Sydney Luna Park for the MYOB INCITE 2016. What we learned from the MYOB Roadshow today is that how the MYOB solutions will define what we do in business tomorrow.

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The topics include;

  • When accounting is more that just punching the numbers
  • Solving a cash flow conundrum
  • Transaction Processing – The new Partner Dashboard and Portal Demo
  • Transaction Processing – MYOB PayDirect Online Demo
  • Compliance – Client Accounting Demo
  • Advisory – budgeting Demo
  • Introducing dashboard
  • Get started with dashboard
  • Dashboard help
  • Easier Client Accounting with MYOB
  • MYOB Connected Practice
  • MYOB Migration Services
  • MYOB Portal
  • MYOB PayDirect
  • MYOB AccountRight
  • MYOB Essentials Accounting
  • MYOB Essentials Cashbook
  • Get the latest BankLink version
  • Client collaboration with BankLink

Please stay tuned as we will give you more details about the topics above.

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#myobincite

MYOB Dragged Bookkeeping into The Modern, Computerised Era

MYOB Dragged Bookkeeping into The Modern, Computerised Era

‘Relentless innovation’ Acuity (February 2016): 23-26. Print

MYOB have published an article in Acuity Magazine outlaying their future strategy. There are of the opinion that R & D is essential and they will be part of Innovation and are spending 13-16% of their annual revenue on R & D.

When it launched in 1991, MYOB was the ultimate industry disruptor. Before then, bookkeeping had meant scratching away at ledgers with pencils and paper.

Now an established ASX-listed company with market capitalisation of A$2b, MYOB now faces the prospect of disruption itself from hungry new competitors.

But under chief executive and former Silicon Valley executive Tim Reed, MYOB has shifted into a relentless, ongoing culture of innovation that has seen it successfully remain ahead of its own industry’s disruption curve – cloud, or online, accounting.

This innovative excellence was recognised when the company was named Australia’s Most Innovative Large Company 2015 by Business Review Weekly, and ranked second in the magazine’s overall list of 50 most innovative companies.

It’s easy to think that innovation involves quick wins and new ideas. But MYOB’s innovation is grounded in years of hard work and the embedding of cultural practices across every aspect of the company.

“We believe innovation is a path to our success,” Reed says. “But innovation isn’t something that is done in a lab. It’s done by the entire team. It’s about never resting, never settling, and continually questioning.”

Reed himself has worked in the epicentre of innovation and disruption. After completing a Harvard MBA, he spent ten years in Silicon Valley at the likes of Internet Profiles Corp, the first company to measure internet traffic, and online services marketplace Elance.

Reed was attracted to the Valley’s model of extreme start-up capitalism, where 70% of start-ups failed. “Failure is the norm,” he says. ‘So you don’t get scared of failure. You’re not caught in mediocrity and nothing is explained – by definition it hasn’t been done before, so you’re out there on the extreme.”

He arrived in the Valley in 1996, a year after web browser pioneer Netscape’s wildly successful IPO that helped trigger the internet boom.

It was a very exciting time,” he says. Reed took over as MYOB chief executive in 2008. He found a company that, despite its strong history of innovation, had taken a confidence hit after “a few big misses”.

The company had moved ahead of the competition and launched an online accounting system in the early 2000s but Reed says they were too early and it didn’t get critical mass.

So MYOB pivoted and switched its focus from innovation to international expansion.

But when Reed joined MYOB, global expansion had turned to retreat. The company had shut its Canadian and UK operations. Reed closed other international markets and began channeling money back into online accounting where both a threat and opportunity was emerging.

 

Cloud busting

MYOB’s traditional business provided software packages that had earned the company lucrative licence fees. But those services could now be offered over the internet.

Online accounting was a boon for SMEs and their accountants. It allowed them to connect and share data over the internet, which reduced manual data entry and saved time. But it attracted aggressive new competitors such as Xero, which meant MYOB had to adapt quickly to maintain its strong market position.

And under Reed’s direction it has. The company’s relentless innovation has seen MYOB position itself remarkably successfully in the haze of cloud disruption. It has signed up more than 150,000 subscribers to its cloud- based SME solutions. Reed says MYOB’s innovation is different to the Silicon Valley start-up model. “In our model, we’re maintaining and driving innovation as opposed to just creating something new,” he says.

MYOB splits innovation into three types: hops, steps and jumps. Hops are ongoing innovation to existing processes that improve outcomes for customers and colleagues. Steps are bigger changes that require multiple divisions to start changing something. Jumps are new things that MYOB delivers to clients.

Around five years ago, MYOB launched bank feeds to clients. Every night a secure transmission of all their transactions pre-populated their accounting software. But the banks needed original signatures before they would provide transaction information to MYOB users.

MYOB became the first accounting software provider to strike agreements with all the major banks to allow MYOB customers to use their online banking signup, rather than signatures, to gain access to their transactions data for MYOB.

The introduction of bank feeds was an original innovation jump, Reed says, but four to five hops and steps followed. Hops, steps and jumps aren’t linear and innovation begets innovation.

The company also invests heavily. It has spent more than A$100m on research and development in the past three years alone.

 

Innovation never sleeps

Reed says there are two keys to relentless innovation: embedding innovation in a company’s culture and patience.

“What you’re doing is changing culture,” he says. “It’s not the responsibility of one part of the company. You need to tackle it throughout the organisation.”

MYOB embeds innovation in all aspects of its business including training and company awards. Its internal Purple Awards programme includes a hotly contested Purple Innovation Award. The engineering and experience team regularly holds “hack days” where everyone associated with product development takes a couple of days out to work on a new solution. Staff pitch ideas, then groups are formed to work on a viable product to be presented at the end of two days.

“Many of the solutions developed during hack days have been introduced into the product roadmap,” Reed says.

Innovation is also part of performance conversations for all staff: when an employee applies for an internal promotion, they’re asked about innovations they have delivered in their current role.

Reed says innovation is one of MYOB’s “fixed core values’” ‘which he reviews at every team meeting.

“I emphasise that if we’re not finding new ways, someone else will.”

The second key is patience.

“When you have culture change, you can’t jump from where you are to your destination,” he says.

One of the myths of the disruption era is that innovative companies emerge overnight. Yet Reed notes that MYOB won the BRW award after a six-to-eight-year journey. And he points to local enterprise software group Atlassian as another example of hard-won success. “Most people hadn’t heard of them until this year, but they actually started over a decade ago in 2002,” he says.

 

No limits

Reed says the financial services industry is in a “pretty exciting space right now” with the merging of financial tools.

“Boundaries are being redefined in and around finance,” he says.

And MYOB’s own boundaries have been blurring. To provide clients with mobile invoicing capabilities, it has entered the bank-dominated payments space.

Reed says it’s still important for companies to maintain a core focus. “But around the fringe what we should all be doing is collaborating as much as possible. That’s much better than us becoming a bank; and that’s much better than banks creating accounting software.

He says disruption and accelerating change are the new normal. “We have lots of great software engineers in Australia, great digital designers, and lots of smart people; there is no reason why we shouldn’t be in what’s a growth sector globally.”

MYOB will keep innovating. It plans to spend 13-16% of its annual A$300 million-plus revenue on research and development and Reed says MYOB is now focused on developing a fully integrated single digital platform that links everyone from regulators to accountants and suppliers.

And he warns that disruption is “coming to parts of industry and parts of the supply chain never dreamed about in the past”.

Through relentless innovation, MYOB, an original disruptor, has successfully adapted to change in the accounting services industry. Reed says the only way for companies to survive and thrive in such a volatile environment is to recognise and confront disruption head on.

Otherwise it [disruption] happens to you and that’s not nearly as much fun. Ultimately, if you stand still you die.”

 

Please call our office on 9954 3843 to ask about which online accounting software is most suitable for you.

 

Superannuation Strategies 2016

Thomson Reuters in their recent newsletter have published a checklist regarding superannuation strategies for 2016 financial year. We believe it provides a very useful reference tool for the coming year.

The new calendar year is a good time to conduct a superannuation health check and set some new goals to help boost superannuation savings. Although there have been no seismic shifts in the superannuation landscape of late, it may be prudent to reacquaint yourself with the rules. The following are some considerations:

  • Check your employer super contributions – for the 2015–2016 financial year, the super guarantee rate is 9.5%. You may want to check that your pay slips reflect this rate. The rate will stay at 9.5% until 1 July 2021, when it will start to gradually increase to 12% by 1 July 2025. Note that Norfolk Island has been brought into the superannuation guarantee fold. A transitional rate starting at 1% will apply from 1 July 2016 for the 2016–2017 financial year.
  • Monitor the concessional contributions caps – the general concessional contributions cap is $30,000 for the 2015–2016 financial year (the same as for 2014–2015). A higher concessional contributions cap of $35,000 applies for 2015–2016 for people aged 59 years or over on 30 June 2013. For the 2015–2016 financial year, this temporary concessional cap of $35,000 also applies for those aged 49 years or over on 30 June 2014 and for those aged 49 years or over on 30 June 2015. This temporary $35,000 concessional cap (not indexed) will cease when the general cap reaches $35,000 through indexation (expected to be 1 July 2018).
  • Monitor non-concessional contributions cap – this has increased to $180,000 (or $540,000 every three years for those under age 65) for the 2015–2016 financial year (same as for 2014–2015).
  • Consider salary sacrificing superannuation – if you make superannuation contributions through a salary sacrifice agreement, these contributions are taxed in the superannuation fund at a maximum rate of 15%. Generally, this tax rate is less than your marginal tax rate. You may want to inquire about salary sacrificing superannuation or consider reviewing an existing arrangement with your employer.
  • Check the government co-contribution – a 50% matching applies whereby the Government will pay a co-contribution up to a maximum of $500 for a $1,000 eligible personal contribution for individuals with total incomes up to $35,454 for 2015–2016 (phasing down for incomes up to $50,454).
  • Check superannuation savings – check your superannuation balance regularly. In addition to getting to know your superannuation better, you may also want to protect your superannuation from identity crime. For example, you may want to change passwords for accounts that can be viewed online.
  • Look for small lost super accounts – the threshold below which small lost super accounts will be required to be transferred to the Commissioner of Taxation has increased. The account balance threshold has gone from $2,000 to $4,000 from 31 December 2015, and will go from $4,000 to $6,000 from 31 December 2016. You may want to consider identifying whether you have any small accounts that meet the threshold.
  • Consolidate multiple superannuation fund accounts – consider consolidating multiple superannuation fund accounts. This may help avoid paying multiple superannuation fund fees, reduce paper work, and make it easier to keep track of your superannuation. Keep all your statements in a safe place, especially if you need to maintain multiple accounts. There may be legitimate reasons for keeping multiple accounts. Now is the time to reassess those reasons and to contact your super fund if you need to keep the accounts active.
  • Think about life expectancy – people are generally healthier and living longer than previous generations. Retired men can expect to live to 86, retired women to 90. This means if you stop working at 60, you are likely to need retirement income for at least 26 to 30 years, if not more.
  • Check insurance and investment options – review insurance and investment options to see if they still meet your needs.

SuperStream

 

 

 

 

 

 

With only two quarters left until SuperStream becomes mandatory, employers are being urged to cross SuperStream off their ‘to-do’ list ahead of the 30 June 2016 deadline.

It takes a little time to set up, but over a quarter of a million employers who have made the change are already enjoying (on average) a 70% reduction in the time they spend on super. That equates to approximately 1.5 hours each cycle! If you haven’t done so already your options to get ready include:

  • upgrading your current payroll software
  • using your super fund’s online system
  • using a messaging portal
  • using a clearing house (like the ATOs free Small business superannuation clearing house).

You can also ask your accountant for help.

An important part of SuperStream preparation is collecting your employees’ TFNs and their funds’ unique super identifiers (USIs). You then enter it into your system ahead of the next quarterly due date on 28 January. This gives you time to check that things are running smoothly before the deadline.

Use ATO Employer checklist for a step-by-step guide on all you need to do.

Find out more about Small Business Superannuation Clearing House.

Government Initiatives – Small Business Restructure Simplification

The government released draft legislation on 5th November 2015 in relation to 2015-16 Budget proposal to present a roll-over to permit small businesses to change their legal structure without any CGT liability.

Small businesses may find that their appropriate structure may change over time or perhaps a new small business may select an initial legal structure which later becomes unnecessarily complex. Restructuring a business into more suitable legal structures may assist in its development and growth. Alternatively, the business can avoid subsequent compliance costs from using overly complex structures. Currently, when a restructure necessitates business assets being transferred from one entity to another, it may result in significant income tax liabilities. These tax issues will then impact on cash flow and available capital and may hinder the ability to restructure.

The exposure draft proposes amendments that will assist small business owners simplify the process of restructuring by permitting them to defer gains or losses, as an alternative to realizing the gains and losses when business assets are transferred from one entity to another.

The Budget announcement referred to a roll-over CGT liability. However, the exposure draft extends the relief to the transfer of trading stock, revenue assets and depreciating assets.

It is proposed that the amendments will apply to transfer of assets occurring on or after 1 July 2016.

 

‘Government Initiatives – Small Business Restructure’ Taxation in Australia (November 2015): 298. Print

The Federal Government’s “Innovation statement”

The Federal Government has published an “Innovation statement” aimed at making Australia a clever country and drive innovation. The Australian Financial Review has listed 11 offers from the Federal Government’s innovation statement worth more than $1 billion dollars.

  1. Stable science investment: By far the largest funding is reserved to provide stable funding for science infrastructure. It will receive $459 million in total over 4 years, with most funding starting in 2017.
  2. Tax: Investors will be able to get a 20% tax offset, instead of a deduction or capital gains tax exemption. This tax offset will benefit people more evenly across income groups. This will cost $106 million over 4 years, with most funding starting from 2017.
  3. Start-ups: The established start-ups will be offered a 10% tax rebate for venture capital investments to expand existing start-ups.
  4. Bankruptcy: Laws will be changed to reduce the default bankruptcy period from 3 years to 1 year, and the ‘same business test’ will be replaced with ‘predominantly similar business test’. This will allow business to access past losses and this new law will be introduced in the first half of 2016. There are no additional costs with this change.
  5. University funding incentives: The government will allocate $127 million over 4 years of research block grant funding towards collaboration between industry and universities.
  6. Visas: A new entrepreneurs visa will be created to attract international talent, and post-grad students with STEM or ICT talent will be fast-tracked permanent residency to be commenced by November 2016. This will cost $1 million from 2015 to mid-2017.
  7. Offshore ‘landing pads’: Australian entrepreneurs will be able to travel with a new visa type more easily to Silicon Valley, Tel Aviv and three other unknown locations, likely in Europe and Asia. This will cost $18 million over 4 years.
  8. Cyber security: A new “Cyber Security Growth Centre” will be established costing $22 million over 4 years, to be set up by mid-2016. An additional $15 million over 4 years will go to quantum computing.
  9. Government body: A new board in the Industry Department called Innovation and Science Australia will be created, along with a new innovation and science committee of cabinet.
  10. Summer schools: More funding will be given for school coding programs for year 5s and 7s and ICT summer schools for year 9s and 10s. This will cost $84 million over 4 years and will begin in 2016.
  11. CSIRO: $200 million will be returned to CSIRO from the government. This is placed into an innovation fund aimed at co-investing in new companies and existing start-ups established by CSIRO, publicly funded research agencies or universities.

The original article can be found at:

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/innovation-statement-at-a-glance-20151206-glgwza

Deceased Estates

At Hurley & Co our goal is to assist individuals where they have the role of managing tax responsibilities of a deceased estate.

Deceases estates hold the assets of the deceased person in trust from the time of death until all property and assets are transferred to beneficiaries nominated in the will. This is administered by either of the following:

  • An executor appointed in the persons will, or
  • An administrator appointed by the Supreme Court

If you have been appointed as the executor or administrator of the estate you will have the responsibilities of carrying out tax obligations of the estate. This could include but is not limited to the following:

  • lodging tax returns for all years and a final tax return for the deceased
  • lodging trust tax return for the estate
  • providing necessary tax information to beneficiaries regarding distributions made to them to assist with tax return preparation
  • In some cases paying the tax liability on behalf of the beneficiaries not presently entitled

As the executor you might have a Capital Gains Tax (CGT) event and have to manage the implications. There are special rules set by the ATO that applies to deceased estates that allows CGT assets to be transferred without a tax liability if the asset passed to the executor, to beneficiary or from executor to beneficiary.

However, a CGT liability may arise if the assets are sold and the proceeds distributed to beneficiaries through the estate procedures.

At Hurley & Co we can help with meeting the above obligations and completing the work to assist with getting the estate finalised to ease the pressure and also to meet the legal obligations of the executor.

Please call John Hurley at our office (02-9954-3843) if you are in the role of Executor or you have any questions regarding this issue.

The ATO is now making an effort to make it easier to finalise a deceased estate given the complexity of the issue and has released the following correspondence.

Please follow the link below for more information about the deceased estate on the ATO website.

https://www.ato.gov.au/Tax-professionals/Newsroom/Your-practice/Making-it-easier-to-finalise-deceased-estates/

The Ideas Man

Russell Howcroft has been fighting for ideas all of his adult life, and he’s got the scars to prove it. During the two decades in the advertising industry, ideas were his secret weapon in the battle for the hearts and minds of clients and consumers. And today, as executive general manager of Australia’s Network Ten television, Howcroft is entrenched in a TV ratings war that will be won or lost on the strength of ideas. So it is little surprise that, in his new book about ideas, Howcroft pulls no punches. “Don’t believe your own BS”, “Sell is not a four letter word” and “Your boss can often be a d***” are just a few tip contained within. The book, he says, was partly born out of exasperation.

“In the past ten years or so, as I got to the pointier end of business, [I felt] more and more frustration around how difficult it was to get people enthusiastic about ideas.

I think we use the word ‘no’ far too quickly, far too readily. The ‘no’ word is a really powerful word, because that just means stop. ‘No I’m not going to do that’ is the end of it.”

An economy of ideas

The danger for nations like Australia is that if ideas and innovation are stifled then productivity suffers too. Productivity measures efficiency in the use of resources – and efficiency is what drives economic growth. Reports from the Australian government’s Productivity Commission have shown a gradual decline in productivity over the past decade. And last year The Economist’s productivity growth ranking placed Australia second-to-last out of 51 countries, just ahead of Botswana.

Howcroft says Australia has a lot to learn from the US, the UK and New Zealand.

“If we go over to the US, they celebrate innovation and they celebrate ideas, and they are great at building businesses off the back of them. They commercialise ideas fantastically well.

“You go to Britain and they are equally brilliant at it. They just love talking about ideas as well. They love debating, they love conversation, and they love pushing and prodding and trying to find which idea on the table is the better idea.”

So what can Australian business and government do to emulate these other nations and foster a culture of innovation?

“I think leadership around this is important,” says Howcroft.

“We have a Minister for Innovation now [Christopher Pyne MP], I think that matters a lot. And giving people a sense of what the future might look like does encourage change.”

 

‘The ideas man’ Acuity (December 2015): 50. Print

Home Loans and Mortgages

We have recently had home loans and mortgages expert Mr. Scott Compton, move into our North Sydney office.

Scott has been a home lending advisor for a number of years and is currently trading as Financial Solutions by Design Pty Ltd.

Scott is up to date on a wide range of lending products and has access to a full variety of lenders including the big four banks, ANZ, CBA, Westpac and NAB. He also extends his work with some of the smaller banks such as Suncorp, ING Direct and Macquarie Bank. He is a professional at obtaining the best deal to fit your particular circumstances and budgeting.

For example, some banks offer reduced deposit loans for certain professions. Other banks may have products for clients with past credit problems or cannot locate their old records necessary for a full documentation loan.

Scott offers a number of options, from a range of lenders, which are presented to the clients. Once a preferred home loan solution has been agreed upon, Scott will assist with the home loan process from the application submission through to post settlement, to ensure the lending structure and supplementary products are established correctly.

Whatever your lending requirements are, please call our office for an introduction to Scott on 02 9954 3843 and I am sure he would be able to assist you.